Google claims commercial quantum computing is just five years away

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https://www.earth.com/news/google-claims-commercial-quantum-computing-is-just-five-years-away/

2nd February 2025

Quantum computing has moved from academic circles to everyday tech discussions. Many people wonder if these futuristic machines will soon handle tasks that push the limits of standard processors.

This question got a boost from Google, which shared an optimistic timeline that contrasts with more cautious forecasts.

Quantum AI has drawn attention to the possibility of commercial quantum computing breakthroughs sooner than expected.

What makes quantum computing different?

Classical computers operate by processing data one step at a time. Quantum systems work with qubits, which can encode multiple values at once and promise exponential increases in computing power.

This difference matters for certain complex problems, especially in materials science and drug discovery.

Designing new molecules or screening vast chemical spaces often strains current hardware, leaving researchers eager for a system that can test scenarios with staggering depth.

The five-year bet:

“We’re optimistic that within five years we’ll see real-world applications that are possible only on quantum computers,” Hartmut Neven said in a statement.

Some research groups see a path to better cybersecurity tools and energy-efficient processes if quantum machines achieve the speed and scale predicted by Google.

Industry watchers note that large companies and governments have been investing heavily to maintain a competitive edge.

Why others disagree:

Not everyone buys the five-year horizon. “If you kind of said 15 years… that’d probably be on the early side,” said Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, at an event in January.

Some experts prefer a longer timeline, suggesting that building error-free quantum systems will remain an uphill climb. Uncertain hardware designs and unpredictable funding cycles contribute to the skepticism.

Practical impacts of quantum computing:

Companies hoping to create new batteries for electric cars stand to benefit.

Analysts believe advanced quantum processors could help test more efficient designs that store energy for longer drives without guesswork.

Scientists in drug discovery picture a faster way to simulate molecular interactions. That could save years of lab work and cut costs for patients who need new treatments.

Fresh approach to simulation:

A team of Google scientists has outlined a new approach that centers on quantum simulation. Their paper highlights techniques for handling complex interactions in ways classical hardware struggles to manage.

Many researchers see simulation-based breakthroughs as an essential step. The success of these methods might pave the way for tasks like predicting chemical reactions with higher accuracy.

Concerns over cybersecurity:

Banks and government agencies pay close attention to quantum progress. They know that the algorithms guarding financial data might be at risk once quantum computers crack encryption that is safe against classical machines.


Scientists are exploring encryption standards labeled post-quantum to counter that risk. These novel methods aim to protect sensitive information if quantum computing power ramps up faster than expected.

Why does quantum computing matter ?

The conversation around quantum computing sometimes recalls how artificial intelligence started as an academic pursuit and then exploded in widespread use.

ChatGPT changed the perception of AI, and many wonder if a similar leap could happen with quantum machines.

Some business leaders worry about unpredictable timeframes. They fear missing out on a major transition if they dismiss quantum tools too soon.

Hardware hurdles:

Quantum chips are notoriously fragile. Each qubit needs a carefully controlled environment to maintain a delicate state, which requires specialized facilities and constant monitoring.

Engineers are refining designs to reduce error rates. They look to scale up qubits without losing the stability needed for correct results.

Governments in the United States, China, and Europe have invested large sums to lead in quantum technology. Researchers hope quantum computing projects will produce robust platforms and train a new generation of experts.

Startups have also joined the race by focusing on software or specialized hardware. Some work on smaller quantum processors that can handle targeted tasks, offering a stepping stone to bigger platforms later.

Managing expectations:

Skeptics caution that early quantum machines may not instantly solve big problems. Real-world results could arrive in stages, as incremental improvements accumulate.

Yet the possibilities continue to spark interest from industries that crave faster computations. A single breakthrough in hardware stability could trigger a flurry of practical demos.

Google’s timeline points to a milestone that many see as both thrilling and uncertain. It sets a marker for teams worldwide to push each other in a race that is as much about engineering as scientific discovery.

Big announcements often fuel excitement and speculation. For now, the path remains challenging, but the promise of quantum computing keeps drawing top minds to the lab.